LLY | 17 October 2024 | AI Stock Analysis & News

LLY Stock Analysis: A Mixed Bag of Opportunities and Cautions

🔵 Recommendation: Eli Lilly (LLY) presents a complex investment landscape, showcasing both bullish trends and cautionary signals that investors should carefully consider.

📈 Key Highlights:
Positive Momentum: The stock is currently in a bullish trend, trading above both the 50-day and 200-day EMA, indicating a strengthening upward movement.
Financial Health: Strong profitability with a net income of $2.97 billion and a year-over-year growth of 28.91% in revenue.
Analyst Support: A significant number of analysts recommend a buy, with recent upgrades suggesting a price target of $1,100.

⚠️ Caution Flags:
Overbought Conditions: The StochRSI indicates that LLY may be overbought, suggesting a potential correction could be on the horizon.
High Debt Levels: With a debt-to-equity ratio of 73.26 and a current ratio of 0.31, financial flexibility is a concern that warrants monitoring.

As we delve deeper into the details, we will break down the price trends, indicators, financial health, valuation metrics, and more to provide a comprehensive analysis of LLY stock. Stay tuned! 👇

LLY Price Analysis

Indicator analysis of LLY. The graph shows the balance between positive and negative indicators. Below the main chart, you can see additional details for Volume, Indicators, Momentum Indicators, and Trend Indicators.
Positive Momentum SignalsNegative Momentum SignalsHold Momentum Signals
  • WaveTrend: Bullish Divergence (Potential Reversal)
  • StochRSI:Overbought
  • WaveTrend: No Clear Signal
  • WaveTrend: Within Channel
  • RSI: Neutral
  • Position: Above midpoint
Positive Trend SignalsNegative Trend SignalsHold Trend Signals
  • Price above Middle Band
  • below Upper Band: In uptrend
  • but be cautious of overbought conditions.
  • Price is above 50-day EMA – Bullish trend.
  • EMA 50: Bullish trend strengthening
  • Price is above 200-day EMA – Bullish trend.
  • EMA 200: Bullish trend strengthening
  • Supertrend: Bullish trend
  • Supertrend: Price is above Supertrend
  • OBV: Decreasing
  • MACD Negative histogram crossover.
  • Position: Above midpoint

LLY stock presents a complex picture for investors, characterized by both positive and negative indicators. On the positive side, the stock is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with the price positioned above both the 50-day and 200-day EMA, indicating a strengthening bullish trend. Additionally, the price is above the middle band of its Bollinger Bands, suggesting an uptrend, although caution is warranted due to overbought conditions indicated by the StochRSI.

Momentum indicators show a bullish divergence in the WaveTrend, hinting at a potential reversal, which could be a positive sign for future price movements. However, the decreasing On-Balance Volume (OBV) and a negative MACD histogram crossover raise concerns about the sustainability of this upward momentum.

Despite the bullish trends, the stock’s current state is tempered by the overbought conditions highlighted by the StochRSI, suggesting that the stock may be due for a correction. Investors should be cautious as the market dynamics could shift quickly, especially with the mixed signals from the momentum and trend indicators.

In summary, while LLY stock shows signs of a bullish trend and potential for further gains, the overbought conditions and negative momentum indicators suggest that investors should proceed with caution. A hold recommendation may be prudent until clearer signals of sustained growth emerge, allowing for a more informed investment decision.

LLY Fundamental Analysis

LLY’s recent financial performance presents a compelling case for investment, characterized by strong profitability and growth potential, despite some notable risks.

The company reported a net income of $2.97 billion for the most recent period, showcasing its robust profitability. This is further underscored by a year-over-year increase in net income, indicating positive momentum for future performance. LLY’s operating margin stands at an impressive 100.00%, reflecting exceptional operational efficiency and cost control. Additionally, a net profit margin of 26.25% highlights the company’s strong ability to generate profits after accounting for all expenses.

However, there are concerns regarding LLY’s financial health. The average net debt is high at $21.15 billion, necessitating careful monitoring of the company’s financial flexibility. The debt-to-equity ratio of 73.26 raises red flags about financial risk, indicating significant leverage that could impact stability. Furthermore, a current ratio of 0.31 suggests potential liquidity issues, as the company may face challenges in meeting short-term obligations. The cash to total assets ratio of 0.04 indicates limited financial flexibility, making LLY vulnerable to economic shocks.

In terms of valuation, the metrics suggest potential overvaluation. The forward P/E ratio of 39.74 and a price-to-sales ratio of 21.24 are significantly above typical ranges, indicating that the stock may be priced too high relative to its earnings and sales.

On the growth and profitability front, LLY has demonstrated strong performance with a revenue of $11.30 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 28.91%. This growth is complemented by an impressive earnings growth rate of 68.20%, showcasing the company’s ability to rapidly increase profitability. The operating margins of 39.09% further indicate effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, the company faces challenges with a negative free cash flow of -$675.32 million, which could limit its financial flexibility in the short term.

Shareholder information reveals a commitment to enhancing shareholder value, as evidenced by stock repurchases totaling $1 billion. However, the average ordinary shares outstanding at 919,757,400 may raise concerns about potential dilution if new shares are issued.

From an income statement perspective, LLY’s strong profitability is evident with a net profit margin of 26.25% and a significant increase in revenue growth of 28.91% year-over-year, indicating a solid market position and demand for its products.

On the balance sheet, the average total debt of $23.86 billion requires further analysis to understand its composition and terms, as it may impact financial health. The high debt-to-equity ratio of 212.88 indicates significant financial leverage, which could pose risks during economic downturns. However, the average tangible book value of $325.72 million suggests a solid net worth after liabilities are deducted.

In terms of cash flow, LLY’s average capital expenditures of $3.60 billion indicate that the company is investing in growth and expansion, which is a positive sign for future performance. Additionally, positive net cash from financing activities of $3.04 billion suggests that the company is successfully raising capital for growth or debt reduction.

Overall, despite some concerns regarding high debt levels and liquidity risks, LLY’s strong revenue growth, profitability, and operational efficiency suggest that the company is well-positioned for future success, warranting a strong buy recommendation. Investors should consider the potential for growth while remaining mindful of the associated risks.

Financial Health

🟢 Net Income for the most recent period was $2.97 billion, indicating strong profitability.

🟢 Year-over-year net income increased, which is a positive sign for future performance.

🟢 Operating Margin of 100.00% suggests exceptional operational efficiency and cost control.

🟢 Net Profit Margin of 26.25% reflects the company’s strong ability to generate profits after all expenses.

🔴 Average Net Debt is high at $21.15 billion, which requires careful monitoring regarding financial flexibility.

🔴 Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 73.26 raises concerns about financial risk, indicating significant leverage.

🔴 Current Ratio of 0.31 suggests potential liquidity risk, as the company may struggle to meet short-term obligations.

🔴 Cash to Total Assets Ratio of 0.04 indicates limited financial flexibility and vulnerability to economic shocks.

Valuation

🔴 Forward P/E ratio of 39.74 indicates potential overvaluation, suggesting that the stock may be priced too high relative to earnings.

🔴 Price-to-Sales Ratio of 21.24 also suggests potential overvaluation, as it is significantly above the typical range.

Growth and Profitability

🟢 Revenue for the most recent period was $11.30 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 28.91%, indicating strong growth potential.

🟢 Earnings Growth of 68.20% is impressive, showcasing the company’s ability to increase profitability rapidly.

🟢 Operating Margins of 39.09% are strong, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.

🔴 Free Cash Flow is negative at -$675.32 million, which could limit the company’s financial flexibility in the short term.

Shareholder Information

🟢 Stock Repurchases of $1 billion indicate management’s confidence in the company’s future and can enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

🔴 Average Ordinary Shares Outstanding at 919,757,400 may indicate potential dilution concerns if new shares are issued.

Income Statement

🟢 The company has demonstrated strong profitability with a net profit margin of 26.25%.

🟢 The increase in revenue growth of 28.91% year-over-year is a positive indicator of the company’s market position and demand for its products.

Balance Sheet

🔴 Average Total Debt of $23.86 billion requires further analysis to understand its composition and terms, as it may impact financial health.

🔴 The high Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 212.88 indicates significant financial leverage, which could pose risks in economic downturns.

🟢 Average Tangible Book Value of $325.72 million suggests a solid net worth after liabilities are deducted.

Cashflow

🟢 Average Capital Expenditures of $3.60 billion indicate that the company is investing in growth and expansion, which is a positive sign for future performance.

🟢 Positive net cash from financing activities of $3.04 billion suggests that the company is successfully raising capital for growth or debt reduction.

Overall, despite some concerns regarding high debt levels and liquidity risks, the strong revenue growth, profitability, and operational efficiency suggest that LLY is well-positioned for future success, warranting a strong buy recommendation.

LLY News Analysis

Eli Lilly (LLY) is experiencing a positive momentum following recent news regarding its new eczema drug approval and favorable analyst ratings.

Summary of Eli Lilly news indicates a strong outlook for investors. The approval of a new eczema drug is a significant milestone, potentially enhancing the company’s revenue streams. Additionally, analyst coverage and positive returns over the past five years further bolster investor confidence.

🟢 Eli Lilly has received approval for a new eczema drug, which could significantly boost its market position and revenue.

🟢 Bernstein has initiated coverage on Eli Lilly with an “Outperform” rating and a price target of $1,100, indicating strong growth potential.

🟢 The Motley Fool highlighted Eli Lilly as a high-flying growth stock with massive upside potential, reinforcing positive sentiment around the stock.

🟢 Investors have seen fantastic returns of 814% over the past five years, showcasing the company’s strong performance and growth trajectory.

🔴 The Zacks Analyst Blog mentions other competitors like Novo Nordisk, which could pose challenges, but Eli Lilly’s recent developments may outweigh these concerns.

🟢 Bernstein’s initiation of coverage on the healthcare sector, including Eli Lilly, suggests a broader positive outlook for the industry.

LLY Holders Analysis

The financial landscape for LLY indicates a generally positive outlook, but caution is warranted due to mixed signals from insider activities and the high level of institutional ownership.

🟢 LLY has a robust institutional ownership at **83.43%**, which reflects strong confidence from large investors. This high level of institutional backing typically suggests a solid foundation for the stock’s performance.

🟡 The insider ownership is notably low at **0.15%**, indicating a potential lack of confidence from company management or a high degree of external control. This could raise concerns about the alignment of interests between management and shareholders.

🟢 The number of institutional holders stands at **4495**, showcasing widespread interest and diversification in ownership. This broad base can help stabilize the stock against volatility.

🟡 Recent insider transactions show a mix of sales and minimal purchases, with a significant amount of selling activity. This could indicate that insiders are cashing out, which may not be a strong vote of confidence in the near-term prospects.

🔴 The insider purchases over the last six months are relatively low compared to sales, with only **40,877 shares purchased** against **2,015,388 shares sold**. This disparity raises concerns about the sentiment among insiders regarding the company’s future.

LLY Analyst Ratings

The analyst ratings for LLY (Eli Lilly and Company) show a strong positive outlook, with a significant number of analysts recommending either a buy or strong buy. In the most recent month, there were 7 strong buy ratings, 16 buy ratings, and only 5 hold ratings, indicating a bullish sentiment among analysts. The lack of sell or strong sell ratings further reinforces this positive outlook. 🟢

Recent upgrades from firms such as Bernstein to Outperform and continued support from Truist Securities and Deutsche Bank, both maintaining their Buy ratings, highlight the confidence in LLY’s performance. The overall sentiment is bolstered by the company’s strong fundamentals and growth prospects in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in diabetes and obesity treatments.

Looking ahead, the forecast for the next month appears promising, with potential price targets suggesting an upside of approximately 5-10% based on current market conditions and analyst expectations. This aligns with the positive analyst sentiment and the absence of negative ratings.

In summary, the strong buy and buy recommendations, coupled with the recent upgrades and positive market sentiment, suggest that LLY is well-positioned for growth in the near term.

LLY Economic Analysis

Based on the US economic and market data:

🟢 The **unemployment rate** has increased slightly to **4.3%**, but this is still relatively low, indicating a stable labor market which supports consumer spending.
🟢 **Retail sales** have shown a positive trend, increasing to **627,510**, suggesting healthy consumer demand that could benefit Eli Lilly’s pharmaceutical sales.
🟢 The **GDP** growth rate remains strong at **5737.189**, indicating a robust economy that typically supports higher corporate earnings.
🔴 However, the **CPI** remains elevated at **314.540**, indicating persistent inflation which could lead to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, potentially impacting growth stocks negatively.
🟡 The **monthly treasury yield** is at **4.25%**, which is relatively high and could deter some investors from growth stocks like LLY, but it is still manageable in the current economic context.

Overall, while there are some concerns regarding inflation and interest rates, the underlying economic indicators such as GDP growth and retail sales suggest a favorable environment for Eli Lilly. The stock is currently trading at **917.97**, with a target mean price of **1010.17**, indicating potential upside.

Disclaimer

Investors may consider the AI predictions and news summaries as one factor in their investment decisions alongside their own research and risk tolerance.

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